Methodology
Boise Population Growth: The Housing Needs Analysis relied on Census data to determine population growth from 2012 to 2022, which includes the annual American Community Survey updates of the decennial census count. During that decade, Boise City population grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent per year, including a 1.1 percent growth between 2021 to 2022.
The population of Ada County grew at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent growth, including a 2.5 percent growth between 2021 to 2022. Accordingly, the updated Housing Needs Analysis assumes that the City of Boise population will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 per year over the next decade.
The analysis only looked at Ada County and did not consider migration patterns with other counties. It is well-understood that housing is a regional issue and that households will make decisions based on affordability, even if that means traveling across county lines.
The Work of Others: We conducted a literature review of available data for Ada County and City of Boise as it related to housing, demographics, and special populations like people experiencing homelessness, students, refugees, and seniors. To understand the current market’s delivery of housing units, the analysis used COMPASS’ open-sourced data on building permits to estimate the number of units coming online in the last few years. This allowed a comparison of the housing need compared to the current delivery of newly constructed units.
Methods: When considering how to estimate housing demand, we considered past approaches, including both the 2014 and the 2021 Boise Housing Needs Analyses. Our conclusion was that these housing analyses did well in considering how population growth (or retraction) impacts housing need over time. These analyses also understood churn – housing units being taken off the market through disrepair or other methods. It was concluded that a majority of housing studies were missing other important characteristics that impact need for housing units and information for policy makers.
Specifically, the analysis looked at the following characteristics to influence housing demand: